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M. Grottke, A. Avritzer, D. S. Menasché, J. Alonso, L. Aguiar, S. G. Alvarez.  2015.  "WAP: Models and metrics for the assessment of critical-infrastructure-targeted malware campaigns". 2015 IEEE 26th International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering (ISSRE). :330-335.

Ensuring system survivability in the wake of advanced persistent threats is a big challenge that the security community is facing to ensure critical infrastructure protection. In this paper, we define metrics and models for the assessment of coordinated massive malware campaigns targeting critical infrastructure sectors. First, we develop an analytical model that allows us to capture the effect of neighborhood on different metrics (infection probability and contagion probability). Then, we assess the impact of putting operational but possibly infected nodes into quarantine. Finally, we study the implications of scanning nodes for early detection of malware (e.g., worms), accounting for false positives and false negatives. Evaluating our methodology using a small four-node topology, we find that malware infections can be effectively contained by using quarantine and appropriate rates of scanning for soft impacts.