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Wang, Wenhui, Chen, Liandong, Han, Longxi, Zhou, Zhihong, Xia, Zhengmin, Chen, Xiuzhen.  2020.  Vulnerability Assessment for ICS system Based on Zero-day Attack Graph. 2020 International Conference on Intelligent Computing, Automation and Systems (ICICAS). :1—5.
The numerous attacks on ICS systems have made severe threats to critical infrastructure. Extensive studies have focussed on the risk assessment of discovering vulnerabilities. However, to identify Zero-day vulnerabilities is challenging because they are unknown to defenders. Here we sought to measure ICS system zero-day risk by building an enhanced attack graph for expected attack path exploiting zero-day vulnerability. In this study, we define the security metrics of Zero-day vulnerability for an ICS. Then we created a Zero-day attack graph to guide how to harden the system by measuring attack paths that exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities. Our studies identify the vulnerability assessment method on ICS systems considering Zero-day Vulnerability by zero-day attack graph. Together, our work is essential to ICS systems security. By assessing unknown vulnerability risk to close the imbalance between attackers and defenders.
Javorník, M., Komárková, J., Sadlek, L., Husak, M..  2020.  Decision Support for Mission-Centric Network Security Management. NOMS 2020 - 2020 IEEE/IFIP Network Operations and Management Symposium. :1–6.
In this paper, we propose a decision support process that is designed to help network and security operators in understanding the complexity of a current security situation and decision making concerning ongoing cyber-attacks and threats. The process focuses on enterprise missions and uses a graph-based mission decomposition model that captures the missions, underlying hosts and services in the network, and functional and security requirements between them. Knowing the vulnerabilities and attacker's position in the network, the process employs logical attack graphs and Bayesian network to infer the probability of the disruption of the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of the missions. Based on the probabilities of disruptions, the process suggests the most resilient mission configuration that would withstand the current security situation.
Ghazo, A. T. Al, Ibrahim, M., Ren, H., Kumar, R..  2020.  A2G2V: Automatic Attack Graph Generation and Visualization and Its Applications to Computer and SCADA Networks. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems. 50:3488–3498.
Securing cyber-physical systems (CPS) and Internet of Things (IoT) systems requires the identification of how interdependence among existing atomic vulnerabilities may be exploited by an adversary to stitch together an attack that can compromise the system. Therefore, accurate attack graphs play a significant role in systems security. A manual construction of the attack graphs is tedious and error-prone, this paper proposes a model-checking-based automated attack graph generator and visualizer (A2G2V). The proposed A2G2V algorithm uses existing model-checking tools, an architecture description tool, and our own code to generate an attack graph that enumerates the set of all possible sequences in which atomic-level vulnerabilities can be exploited to compromise system security. The architecture description tool captures a formal representation of the networked system, its atomic vulnerabilities, their pre-and post-conditions, and security property of interest. A model-checker is employed to automatically identify an attack sequence in the form of a counterexample. Our own code integrated with the model-checker parses the counterexamples, encodes those for specification relaxation, and iterates until all attack sequences are revealed. Finally, a visualization tool has also been incorporated with A2G2V to generate a graphical representation of the generated attack graph. The results are illustrated through application to computer as well as control (SCADA) networks.
Feng, Y., Sun, G., Liu, Z., Wu, C., Zhu, X., Wang, Z., Wang, B..  2020.  Attack Graph Generation and Visualization for Industrial Control Network. 2020 39th Chinese Control Conference (CCC). :7655–7660.
Attack graph is an effective way to analyze the vulnerabilities for industrial control networks. We develop a vulnerability correlation method and a practical visualization technology for industrial control network. First of all, we give a complete attack graph analysis for industrial control network, which focuses on network model and vulnerability context. Particularly, a practical attack graph algorithm is proposed, including preparing environments and vulnerability classification and correlation. Finally, we implement a three-dimensional interactive attack graph visualization tool. The experimental results show validation and verification of the proposed method.
Stan, O., Bitton, R., Ezrets, M., Dadon, M., Inokuchi, M., Yoshinobu, O., Tomohiko, Y., Elovici, Y., Shabtai, A..  2020.  Extending Attack Graphs to Represent Cyber-Attacks in Communication Protocols and Modern IT Networks. IEEE Transactions on Dependable and Secure Computing. :1–1.
An attack graph is a method used to enumerate the possible paths that an attacker can take in the organizational network. MulVAL is a known open-source framework used to automatically generate attack graphs. MulVAL's default modeling has two main shortcomings. First, it lacks the ability to represent network protocol vulnerabilities, and thus it cannot be used to model common network attacks, such as ARP poisoning. Second, it does not support advanced types of communication, such as wireless and bus communication, and thus it cannot be used to model cyber-attacks on networks that include IoT devices or industrial components. In this paper, we present an extended network security model for MulVAL that: (1) considers the physical network topology, (2) supports short-range communication protocols, (3) models vulnerabilities in the design of network protocols, and (4) models specific industrial communication architectures. Using the proposed extensions, we were able to model multiple attack techniques including: spoofing, man-in-the-middle, and denial of service attacks, as well as attacks on advanced types of communication. We demonstrate the proposed model in a testbed which implements a simplified network architecture comprised of both IT and industrial components
Mohammadian, M..  2018.  Network Security Risk Assessment Using Intelligent Agents. 2018 International Symposium on Agent, Multi-Agent Systems and Robotics (ISAMSR). :1–6.
Network security is an important issue in today's world with existence of network systems that communicate data and information about all aspects of our life, work and business. Network security is an important issue with connected networks and data communication between organisations of that specialized in different areas. Network security engineers spend a considerable amount of time to investigate network for security breaches and to enhance the security of their networks and data communications on their networks. They use Attack Graphs (AGs) which are graphical representation of networks to assist them in analysing large networks. With increase size of networks and their complexity, the use of attack graphs alone does not provide the necessary risk analysis and assessment facilities. There is a need for automated intelligent systems such as multiagent systems to assist in analysing, assessing and testing networks. Network systems changes with the increase in the size of organisation and connectivity of network of organisations based on the business needs or organisational or governmental rules and regulations. In this paper a multi-agent system is developed assist in analysing interconnected network to identify security risks. The multi-agent system is capable of security network analysis to identify paths using an attack graph of the network under consideration to protect network systems, as the networks grow and change, against possible attacks. The multiagent system uses a model developed by Mohammadian [3] for converting AGs to Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to identify attack paths from attack graphs and perform security risk analysis. In this paper a novel decision-making approach using FCMs is employed.
Ibrahim, M., Alsheikh, A..  2018.  Assessing Level of Resilience Using Attack Graphs. 2018 10th International Conference on Electronics, Computers and Artificial Intelligence (ECAI). :1–6.
Cyber-Physical-Systems are subject to cyber-attacks due to existing vulnerabilities in the various components constituting them. System Resiliency is concerned with the extent the system is able to bounce back to a normal state under attacks. In this paper, two communication Networks are analyzed, formally described, and modeled using Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL), identifying their architecture, connections, vulnerabilities, resources, possible attack instances as well as their pre-and post-conditions. The generated network models are then verified against a security property using JKind model checker integrated tool. The union of the generated attack sequences/scenarios resulting in overall network compromise (given by its loss of stability) is the Attack graph. The generated Attack graph is visualized graphically using Unity software, and then used to assess the worst Level of Resilience for both networks.
Payne, Josh, Budhraja, Karan, Kundu, Ashish.  2019.  How Secure Is Your IoT Network? 2019 IEEE International Congress on Internet of Things (ICIOT). :181—188.

The proliferation of IoT devices in smart homes, hospitals, and enterprise networks is wide-spread and continuing to increase in a superlinear manner. The question is: how can one assess the security of an IoT network in a holistic manner? In this paper, we have explored two dimensions of security assessment- using vulnerability information and attack vectors of IoT devices and their underlying components (compositional security scores) and using SIEM logs captured from the communications and operations of such devices in a network (dynamic activity metrics). These measures are used to evaluate the security of IoT devices and the overall IoT network, demonstrating the effectiveness of attack circuits as practical tools for computing security metrics (exploitability, impact, and risk to confidentiality, integrity, and availability) of the network. We decided to approach threat modeling using attack graphs. To that end, we propose the notion of attack circuits, which are generated from input/output pairs constructed from CVEs using NLP, and an attack graph composed of these circuits. Our system provides insight into possible attack paths an adversary may utilize based on their exploitability, impact, or overall risk. We have performed experiments on IoT networks to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed techniques.

Wu, Songyang, Zhang, Yong, Chen, Xiao.  2018.  Security Assessment of Dynamic Networks with an Approach of Integrating Semantic Reasoning and Attack Graphs. 2018 IEEE 4th International Conference on Computer and Communications (ICCC). :1166–1174.
Because of the high-value data of an enterprise, sophisticated cyber-attacks targeted at enterprise networks have become prominent. Attack graphs are useful tools that facilitate a scalable security analysis of enterprise networks. However, the administrators face difficulties in effectively modelling security problems and making right decisions when constructing attack graphs as their risk assessment experience is often limited. In this paper, we propose an innovative method of security assessment through an ontology- and graph-based approach. An ontology is designed to represent security knowledge such as assets, vulnerabilities, attacks, countermeasures, and relationships between them in a common vocabulary. An efficient algorithm is proposed to generate an attack graph based on the inference ability of the security ontology. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with different sizes and topologies of test networks; the results show that our proposed algorithm facilitates a scalable security analysis of enterprise networks.
Fang, Zheng, Fu, Hao, Gu, Tianbo, Qian, Zhiyun, Jaeger, Trent, Mohapatra, Prasant.  2019.  ForeSee: A Cross-Layer Vulnerability Detection Framework for the Internet of Things. 2019 IEEE 16th International Conference on Mobile Ad Hoc and Sensor Systems (MASS). :236–244.
The exponential growth of Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices not only brings convenience but also poses numerous challenging safety and security issues. IoT devices are distributed, highly heterogeneous, and more importantly, directly interact with the physical environment. In IoT systems, the bugs in device firmware, the defects in network protocols, and the design flaws in system configurations all may lead to catastrophic accidents, causing severe threats to people's lives and properties. The challenge gets even more escalated as the possible attacks may be chained together in a long sequence across multiple layers, rendering the current vulnerability analysis inapplicable. In this paper, we present ForeSee, a cross-layer formal framework to comprehensively unveil the vulnerabilities in IoT systems. ForeSee generates a novel attack graph that depicts all of the essential components in IoT, from low-level physical surroundings to high-level decision-making processes. The corresponding graph-based analysis then enables ForeSee to precisely capture potential attack paths. An optimization algorithm is further introduced to reduce the computational complexity of our analysis. The illustrative case studies show that our multilayer modeling can capture threats ignored by the previous approaches.
Chen, Yu-Cheng, Mooney, Vincent, Grijalva, Santiago.  2019.  A Survey of Attack Models for Cyber-Physical Security Assessment in Electricity Grid. 2019 IFIP/IEEE 27th International Conference on Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI-SoC). :242–243.
This paper surveys some prior work regarding attack models in a cyber-physical system and discusses the potential benefits. For comparison, the full paper will model a bad data injection attack scenario in power grid using the surveyed prior work.
Chen, Yu-Cheng, Gieseking, Tim, Campbell, Dustin, Mooney, Vincent, Grijalva, Santiago.  2019.  A Hybrid Attack Model for Cyber-Physical Security Assessment in Electricity Grid. 2019 IEEE Texas Power and Energy Conference (TPEC). :1–6.
A detailed model of an attack on the power grid involves both a preparation stage as well as an execution stage of the attack. This paper introduces a novel Hybrid Attack Model (HAM) that combines Probabilistic Learning Attacker, Dynamic Defender (PLADD) model and a Markov Chain model to simulate the planning and execution stages of a bad data injection attack in power grid. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the prior work models and of our proposed Hybrid Attack Model and show that HAM is more effective compared to individual PLADD or Markov Chain models.
Musa, Tanvirali, Yeo, Kheng Cher, Azam, Sami, Shanmugam, Bharanidharan, Karim, Asif, Boer, Friso De, Nur, Fernaz Narin, Faisal, Fahad.  2019.  Analysis of Complex Networks for Security Issues using Attack Graph. 2019 International Conference on Computer Communication and Informatics (ICCCI). :1–6.
Organizations perform security analysis for assessing network health and safe-guarding their growing networks through Vulnerability Assessments (AKA VA Scans). The output of VA scans is reports on individual hosts and its vulnerabilities, which, are of little use as the origin of the attack can't be located from these. Attack Graphs, generated without an in-depth analysis of the VA reports, are used to fill in these gaps, but only provide cursory information. This study presents an effective model of depicting the devices and the data flow that efficiently identifies the weakest nodes along with the concerned vulnerability's origin.The complexity of the attach graph using MulVal has been greatly reduced using the proposed approach of using the risk and CVSS base score as evaluation criteria. This makes it easier for the user to interpret the attack graphs and thus reduce the time taken needed to identify the attack paths and where the attack originates from.
Yang, Shiman, Shi, Yijie, Guo, Fenzhuo.  2019.  Risk Assessment of Industrial Internet System By Using Game-Attack Graphs. 2019 IEEE 5th International Conference on Computer and Communications (ICCC). :1660–1663.
In this paper, we propose a game-attack graph-based risk assessment model for industrial Internet system. Firstly, use non-destructive asset profiling to scan components and devices included in the system and their open services and communication protocols. Further compare the CNVD and CVE to find the vulnerability through the search engine keyword segment matching method, and generate an asset threat list. Secondly, build the attack rule base based on the network information, and model the system using the attribute attack graph. Thirdly, combine the game theory with the idea of the established model. Finally, optimize and quantify the analysis to get the best attack path and the best defense strategy.
Al Ghazo, Alaa T., Kumar, Ratnesh.  2019.  Identification of Critical-Attacks Set in an Attack-Graph. 2019 IEEE 10th Annual Ubiquitous Computing, Electronics Mobile Communication Conference (UEMCON). :0716–0722.
SCADA/ICS (Supervisory Control and Data Acqui-sition/Industrial Control Systems) networks are becoming targets of advanced multi-faceted attacks, and use of attack-graphs has been proposed to model complex attacks scenarios that exploit interdependence among existing atomic vulnerabilities to stitch together the attack-paths that might compromise a system-level security property. While such analysis of attack scenarios enables security administrators to establish appropriate security measurements to secure the system, practical considerations on time and cost limit their ability to address all system vulnerabilities at once. In this paper, we propose an approach that identifies label-cuts to automatically identify a set of critical-attacks that, when blocked, guarantee system security. We utilize the Strongly-Connected-Components (SCCs) of the given attack graph to generate an abstracted version of the attack-graph, a tree over the SCCs, and next use an iterative backward search over this tree to identify set of backward reachable SCCs, along with their outgoing edges and their labels, to identify a cut with a minimum number of labels that forms a critical-attacks set. We also report the implementation and validation of the proposed algorithm to a real-world case study, a SCADA network for a water treatment cyber-physical system.
Hadar, Ethan, Hassanzadeh, Amin.  2019.  Big Data Analytics on Cyber Attack Graphs for Prioritizing Agile Security Requirements. 2019 IEEE 27th International Requirements Engineering Conference (RE). :330–339.

In enterprise environments, the amount of managed assets and vulnerabilities that can be exploited is staggering. Hackers' lateral movements between such assets generate a complex big data graph, that contains potential hacking paths. In this vision paper, we enumerate risk-reduction security requirements in large scale environments, then present the Agile Security methodology and technologies for detection, modeling, and constant prioritization of security requirements, agile style. Agile Security models different types of security requirements into the context of an attack graph, containing business process targets and critical assets identification, configuration items, and possible impacts of cyber-attacks. By simulating and analyzing virtual adversary attack paths toward cardinal assets, Agile Security examines the business impact on business processes and prioritizes surgical requirements. Thus, handling these requirements backlog that are constantly evaluated as an outcome of employing Agile Security, gradually increases system hardening, reduces business risks and informs the IT service desk or Security Operation Center what remediation action to perform next. Once remediated, Agile Security constantly recomputes residual risk, assessing risk increase by threat intelligence or infrastructure changes versus defender's remediation actions in order to drive overall attack surface reduction.

Ingols, Kyle, Chu, Matthew, Lippmann, Richard, Webster, Seth, Boyer, Stephen.  2009.  Modeling Modern Network Attacks and Countermeasures Using Attack Graphs. 2009 Annual Computer Security Applications Conference. :117–126.
By accurately measuring risk for enterprise networks, attack graphs allow network defenders to understand the most critical threats and select the most effective countermeasures. This paper describes substantial enhancements to the NetSPA attack graph system required to model additional present-day threats (zero-day exploits and client-side attacks) and countermeasures (intrusion prevention systems, proxy firewalls, personal firewalls, and host-based vulnerability scans). Point-to-point reachability algorithms and structures were extensively redesigned to support "reverse" reachability computations and personal firewalls. Host-based vulnerability scans are imported and analyzed. Analysis of an operational network with 84 hosts demonstrates that client-side attacks pose a serious threat. Experiments on larger simulated networks demonstrated that NetSPA's previous excellent scaling is maintained. Less than two minutes are required to completely analyze a four-enclave simulated network with more than 40,000 hosts protected by personal firewalls.
Li, Ming, Hawrylak, Peter, Hale, John.  2019.  Concurrency Strategies for Attack Graph Generation. 2019 2nd International Conference on Data Intelligence and Security (ICDIS). :174-179.

The network attack graph is a powerful tool for analyzing network security, but the generation of a large-scale graph is non-trivial. The main challenge is from the explosion of network state space, which greatly increases time and storage costs. In this paper, three parallel algorithms are proposed to generate scalable attack graphs. An OpenMP-based programming implementation is used to test their performance. Compared with the serial algorithm, the best performance from the proposed algorithms provides a 10X speedup.

Sairam, Ashok Singh, Verma, Sagar Kumar.  2018.  Using Bounded Binary Particle Swarm Optimization to Analyze Network Attack Graphs. Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Distributed Computing and Networking. :41:1-41:9.
Binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO) is a technique widely used to solve combinatorial problems. In this paper, we propose a variant of BPSO to find most likely attack paths in an attack graph. The aim is to find an attack path with the highest attack probability and least path length. In such combinatorial optimization problem, the set of feasible solutions is usually discrete and an exhaustive search may lead to unnecessary examination of those segments of the search space, which are assured to not include a solution. The paper introduces the concept of bounding the solution space of BPSO. The minimum and maximum value of each objective called bound of the solution is computed. The search space of BPSO is restricted within these solution bounds and hence we name our approach as bounded binary particle swarm optimization (BBPSO). By bounding the solution space, those particles of BPSO which are guaranteed to be infeasible are not considered for feasibility check. Experimental results show that the proposed approach provide a 50 percent performance improvement as compared to the conventional BPSO.
Mukherjee, Preetam, Mazumdar, Chandan.  2018.  Attack Difficulty Metric for Assessment of Network Security. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security. :44:1-44:10.
In recent days, organizational networks are becoming target of sophisticated multi-hop attacks. Attack Graph has been proposed as a useful modeling tool for complex attack scenarios by combining multiple vulnerabilities in causal chains. Analysis of attack scenarios enables security administrators to calculate quantitative security measurements. These measurements justify security investments in the organization. Different security metrics based on attack graph have been introduced for evaluation of comparable security measurements. Studies show that difficulty of exploiting the same vulnerability changes with change of its position in the causal chains of attack graph. In this paper, a new security metric based on attack graph, namely Attack Difficulty has been proposed to include this position factor. The security metrics are classified in two major categories viz. counting metrics and difficulty-based metrics. The proposed Attack Difficulty Metric employs both categories of metrics as the basis for its measurement. Case studies have been presented for demonstrating applicability of the proposed metric. Comparison of this new metric with other attack graph based security metrics has also been included to validate its acceptance in real life situations.
Xie, H., Lv, K., Hu, C..  2018.  An Improved Monte Carlo Graph Search Algorithm for Optimal Attack Path Analysis. 2018 17th IEEE International Conference On Trust, Security And Privacy In Computing And Communications/ 12th IEEE International Conference On Big Data Science And Engineering (TrustCom/BigDataSE). :307-315.

The problem of optimal attack path analysis is one of the hotspots in network security. Many methods are available to calculate an optimal attack path, such as Q-learning algorithm, heuristic algorithms, etc. But most of them have shortcomings. Some methods can lead to the problem of path loss, and some methods render the result un-comprehensive. This article proposes an improved Monte Carlo Graph Search algorithm (IMCGS) to calculate optimal attack paths in target network. IMCGS can avoid the problem of path loss and get comprehensive results quickly. IMCGS is divided into two steps: selection and backpropagation, which is used to calculate optimal attack paths. A weight vector containing priority, host connection number, CVSS value is proposed for every host in an attack path. This vector is used to calculate the evaluation value, the total CVSS value and the average CVSS value of a path in the target network. Result for a sample test network is presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed algorithm to generate optimal attack paths in one single run. The results obtained by IMCGS show good performance and are compared with Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm (ACO) and k-zero attack graph.

Nichols, W., Hawrylak, P. J., Hale, J., Papa, M..  2018.  Methodology to Estimate Attack Graph System State from a Simulation of a Nuclear Research Reactor. 2018 Resilience Week (RWS). :84-87.
Hybrid attack graphs are a powerful tool when analyzing the cybersecurity of a cyber-physical system. However, it is important to ensure that this tool correctly models reality, particularly when modelling safety-critical applications, such as a nuclear reactor. By automatically verifying that a simulation reaches the state predicted by an attack graph by analyzing the final state of the simulation, this verification procedure can be accomplished. As such, a mechanism to estimate if a simulation reaches the expected state in a hybrid attack graph is proposed here for the nuclear reactor domain.
Zou, Z., Wang, D., Yang, H., Hou, Y., Yang, Y., Xu, W..  2018.  Research on Risk Assessment Technology of Industrial Control System Based on Attack Graph. 2018 IEEE 3rd Advanced Information Technology, Electronic and Automation Control Conference (IAEAC). :2420-2423.

In order to evaluate the network security risks and implement effective defenses in industrial control system, a risk assessment method for industrial control systems based on attack graphs is proposed. Use the concept of network security elements to translate network attacks into network state migration problems and build an industrial control network attack graph model. In view of the current subjective evaluation of expert experience, the atomic attack probability assignment method and the CVSS evaluation system were introduced to evaluate the security status of the industrial control system. Finally, taking the centralized control system of the thermal power plant as the experimental background, the case analysis is performed. The experimental results show that the method can comprehensively analyze the potential safety hazards in the industrial control system and provide basis for the safety management personnel to take effective defense measures.

Yi, F., Cai, H. Y., Xin, F. Z..  2018.  A Logic-Based Attack Graph for Analyzing Network Security Risk Against Potential Attack. 2018 IEEE International Conference on Networking, Architecture and Storage (NAS). :1-4.
In this paper, we present LAPA, a framework for automatically analyzing network security risk and generating attack graph for potential attack. The key novelty in our work is that we represent the properties of networks and zero day vulnerabilities, and use logical reasoning algorithm to generate potential attack path to determine if the attacker can exploit these vulnerabilities. In order to demonstrate the efficacy, we have implemented the LAPA framework and compared with three previous network vulnerability analysis methods. Our analysis results have a low rate of false negatives and less cost of processing time due to the worst case assumption and logical property specification and reasoning. We have also conducted a detailed study of the efficiency for generation attack graph with different value of attack path number, attack path depth and network size, which affect the processing time mostly. We estimate that LAPA can produce high quality results for a large portion of networks.
Yousefi, M., Mtetwa, N., Zhang, Y., Tianfield, H..  2018.  A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Attack Graph Analysis. 2018 17th IEEE International Conference On Trust, Security And Privacy In Computing And Communications/ 12th IEEE International Conference On Big Data Science And Engineering (TrustCom/BigDataSE). :212-217.

Attack graph approach is a common tool for the analysis of network security. However, analysis of attack graphs could be complicated and difficult depending on the attack graph size. This paper presents an approximate analysis approach for attack graphs based on Q-learning. First, we employ multi-host multi-stage vulnerability analysis (MulVAL) to generate an attack graph for a given network topology. Then we refine the attack graph and generate a simplified graph called a transition graph. Next, we use a Q-learning model to find possible attack routes that an attacker could use to compromise the security of the network. Finally, we evaluate the approach by applying it to a typical IT network scenario with specific services, network configurations, and vulnerabilities.