Visible to the public Biblio

Filters: Keyword is decision theory  [Clear All Filters]
2019-06-24
You, Y., Li, Z., Oechtering, T. J..  2018.  Optimal Privacy-Enhancing And Cost-Efficient Energy Management Strategies For Smart Grid Consumers. 2018 IEEE Statistical Signal Processing Workshop (SSP). :826–830.

The design of optimal energy management strategies that trade-off consumers' privacy and expected energy cost by using an energy storage is studied. The Kullback-Leibler divergence rate is used to assess the privacy risk of the unauthorized testing on consumers' behavior. We further show how this design problem can be formulated as a belief state Markov decision process problem so that standard tools of the Markov decision process framework can be utilized, and the optimal solution can be obtained by using Bellman dynamic programming. Finally, we illustrate the privacy-enhancement and cost-saving by numerical examples.

2018-02-27
Huang, L., Chen, J., Zhu, Q..  2017.  A Factored MDP Approach to Optimal Mechanism Design for Resilient Large-Scale Interdependent Critical Infrastructures. 2017 Workshop on Modeling and Simulation of Cyber-Physical Energy Systems (MSCPES). :1–6.

Enhancing the security and resilience of interdependent infrastructures is crucial. In this paper, we establish a theoretical framework based on Markov decision processes (MDPs) to design optimal resiliency mechanisms for interdependent infrastructures. We use MDPs to capture the dynamics of the failure of constituent components of an infrastructure and their cyber-physical dependencies. Factored MDPs and approximate linear programming are adopted for an exponentially growing dimension of both state and action spaces. Under our approximation scheme, the optimally distributed policy is equivalent to the centralized one. Finally, case studies in a large-scale interdependent system demonstrate the effectiveness of the control strategy to enhance the network resilience to cascading failures.

2018-02-14
Nam, C., Walker, P., Lewis, M., Sycara, K..  2017.  Predicting trust in human control of swarms via inverse reinforcement learning. 2017 26th IEEE International Symposium on Robot and Human Interactive Communication (RO-MAN). :528–533.
In this paper, we study the model of human trust where an operator controls a robotic swarm remotely for a search mission. Existing trust models in human-in-the-loop systems are based on task performance of robots. However, we find that humans tend to make their decisions based on physical characteristics of the swarm rather than its performance since task performance of swarms is not clearly perceivable by humans. We formulate trust as a Markov decision process whose state space includes physical parameters of the swarm. We employ an inverse reinforcement learning algorithm to learn behaviors of the operator from a single demonstration. The learned behaviors are used to predict the trust level of the operator based on the features of the swarm.
2017-12-20
Fihri, W. F., Ghazi, H. E., Kaabouch, N., Majd, B. A. E..  2017.  Bayesian decision model with trilateration for primary user emulation attack localization in cognitive radio networks. 2017 International Symposium on Networks, Computers and Communications (ISNCC). :1–6.

Primary user emulation (PUE) attack is one of the main threats affecting cognitive radio (CR) networks. The PUE can forge the same signal as the real primary user (PU) in order to use the licensed channel and cause deny of service (DoS). Therefore, it is important to locate the position of the PUE in order to stop and avoid any further attack. Several techniques have been proposed for localization, including the received signal strength indication RSSI, Triangulation, and Physical Network Layer Coding. However, the area surrounding the real PU is always affected by uncertainty. This uncertainty can be described as a lost (cost) function and conditional probability to be taken into consideration while proclaiming if a PU/PUE is the real PU or not. In this paper, we proposed a combination of a Bayesian model and trilateration technique. In the first part a trilateration technique is used to have a good approximation of the PUE position making use of the RSSI between the anchor nodes and the PU/PUE. In the second part, a Bayesian decision theory is used to claim the legitimacy of the PU based on the lost function and the conditional probability to help to determine the existence of the PUE attacker in the uncertainty area.

2017-02-27
Li, X., He, Z., Zhang, S..  2015.  Robust optimization of risk for power system based on information gap decision theory. 2015 5th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT). :200–204.

Risk-control optimization has great significance for security of power system. Usually the probabilistic uncertainties of parameters are considered in the research of risk optimization of power system. However, the method of probabilistic uncertainty description will be insufficient in the case of lack of sample data. Thus non-probabilistic uncertainties of parameters should be considered, and will impose a significant influence on the results of optimization. To solve this problem, a robust optimization operation method of power system risk-control is presented in this paper, considering the non-probabilistic uncertainty of parameters based on information gap decision theory (IGDT). In the method, loads are modeled as the non-probabilistic uncertainty parameters, and the model of robust optimization operation of risk-control is presented. By solving the model, the maximum fluctuation of the pre-specified target can be obtained, and the strategy of this situation can be obtained at the same time. The proposed model is applied to the IEEE-30 system of risk-control by simulation. The results can provide the valuable information for operating department to risk management.

2015-05-05
Zonouz, S.A., Khurana, H., Sanders, W.H., Yardley, T.M..  2014.  RRE: A Game-Theoretic Intrusion Response and Recovery Engine. Parallel and Distributed Systems, IEEE Transactions on. 25:395-406.

Preserving the availability and integrity of networked computing systems in the face of fast-spreading intrusions requires advances not only in detection algorithms, but also in automated response techniques. In this paper, we propose a new approach to automated response called the response and recovery engine (RRE). Our engine employs a game-theoretic response strategy against adversaries modeled as opponents in a two-player Stackelberg stochastic game. The RRE applies attack-response trees (ART) to analyze undesired system-level security events within host computers and their countermeasures using Boolean logic to combine lower level attack consequences. In addition, the RRE accounts for uncertainties in intrusion detection alert notifications. The RRE then chooses optimal response actions by solving a partially observable competitive Markov decision process that is automatically derived from attack-response trees. To support network-level multiobjective response selection and consider possibly conflicting network security properties, we employ fuzzy logic theory to calculate the network-level security metric values, i.e., security levels of the system's current and potentially future states in each stage of the game. In particular, inputs to the network-level game-theoretic response selection engine, are first fed into the fuzzy system that is in charge of a nonlinear inference and quantitative ranking of the possible actions using its previously defined fuzzy rule set. Consequently, the optimal network-level response actions are chosen through a game-theoretic optimization process. Experimental results show that the RRE, using Snort's alerts, can protect large networks for which attack-response trees have more than 500 nodes.

2015-05-04
Pandey, A.K., Agrawal, C.P..  2014.  Analytical Network Process based model to estimate the quality of software components. Issues and Challenges in Intelligent Computing Techniques (ICICT), 2014 International Conference on. :678-682.

Software components are software units designed to interact with other independently developed software components. These components are assembled by third parties into software applications. The success of final software applications largely depends upon the selection of appropriate and easy to fit components in software application according to the need of customer. It is primary requirement to evaluate the quality of components before using them in the final software application system. All the quality characteristics may not be of same significance for a particular software application of a specific domain. Therefore, it is necessary to identify only those characteristics/ sub-characteristics, which may have higher importance over the others. Analytical Network Process (ANP) is used to solve the decision problem, where attributes of decision parameters form dependency networks. The objective of this paper is to propose ANP based model to prioritize the characteristics /sub-characteristics of quality and to o estimate the numeric value of software quality.