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Chin, J., Zufferey, T., Shyti, E., Hug, G..  2019.  Load Forecasting of Privacy-Aware Consumers. 2019 IEEE Milan PowerTech. :1—6.

The roll-out of smart meters (SMs) in the electric grid has enabled data-driven grid management and planning techniques. SM data can be used together with short-term load forecasts (STLFs) to overcome polling frequency constraints for better grid management. However, the use of SMs that report consumption data at high spatial and temporal resolutions entails consumer privacy risks, motivating work in protecting consumer privacy. The impact of privacy protection schemes on STLF accuracy is not well studied, especially for smaller aggregations of consumers, whose load profiles are subject to more volatility and are, thus, harder to predict. In this paper, we analyse the impact of two user demand shaping privacy protection schemes, model-distribution predictive control (MDPC) and load-levelling, on STLF accuracy. Support vector regression is used to predict the load profiles at different consumer aggregation levels. Results indicate that, while the MDPC algorithm marginally affects forecast accuracy for smaller consumer aggregations, this diminishes at higher aggregation levels. More importantly, the load-levelling scheme significantly improves STLF accuracy as it smoothens out the grid visible consumer load profile.

Kaci, A., Kamwa, I., Dessaint, L.-A., Guillon, S..  2014.  Phase angles as predictors of network dynamic security limits and further implications. PES General Meeting | Conference Exposition, 2014 IEEE. :1-6.

In the United States, the number of Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) will increase from 166 networked devices in 2010 to 1043 in 2014. According to the Department of Energy, they are being installed in order to “evaluate and visualize reliability margin (which describes how close the system is to the edge of its stability boundary).” However, there is still a lot of debate in academia and industry around the usefulness of phase angles as unambiguous predictors of dynamic stability. In this paper, using 4-year of actual data from Hydro-Québec EMS, it is shown that phase angles enable satisfactory predictions of power transfer and dynamic security margins across critical interface using random forest models, with both explanation level and R-squares accuracy exceeding 99%. A generalized linear model (GLM) is next implemented to predict phase angles from day-ahead to hour-ahead time frames, using historical phase angles values and load forecast. Combining GLM based angles forecast with random forest mapping of phase angles to power transfers result in a new data-driven approach for dynamic security monitoring.

Liang, Y., He, D., Chen, D..  2019.  Poisoning Attack on Load Forecasting. 2019 IEEE Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia (ISGT Asia). :1230—1235.

Short-term load forecasting systems for power grids have demonstrated high accuracy and have been widely employed for commercial use. However, classic load forecasting systems, which are based on statistical methods, are subject to vulnerability from training data poisoning. In this paper, we demonstrate a data poisoning strategy that effectively corrupts the forecasting model even in the presence of outlier detection. To the best of our knowledge, poisoning attack on short-term load forecasting with outlier detection has not been studied in previous works. Our method applies to several forecasting models, including the most widely-adapted and best-performing ones, such as multiple linear regression (MLR) and neural network (NN) models. Starting with the MLR model, we develop a novel closed-form solution to quickly estimate the new MLR model after a round of data poisoning without retraining. We then employ line search and simulated annealing to find the poisoning attack solution. Furthermore, we use the MLR attacking solution to generate a numerical solution for other models, such as NN. The effectiveness of our algorithm has been tested on the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) data set with the presence of outlier detection.

Olegario, Cielito C., Coronel, Andrei D., Medina, Ruji P., Gerardo, Bobby D..  2018.  A Hybrid Approach Towards Improved Artificial Neural Network Training for Short-Term Load Forecasting. Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Data Science and Information Technology. :53-58.

The power of artificial neural networks to form predictive models for phenomenon that exhibit non-linear relationships is a given fact. Despite this advantage, artificial neural networks are known to suffer drawbacks such as long training times and computational intensity. The researchers propose a two-tiered approach to enhance the learning performance of artificial neural networks for phenomenon with time series where data exhibits predictable changes that occur every calendar year. This paper focuses on the initial results of the first phase of the proposed algorithm which incorporates clustering and classification prior to application of the backpropagation algorithm. The 2016–2017 zonal load data of France is used as the data set. K-means is chosen as the clustering algorithm and a comparison is made between Naïve Bayes and k-Nearest Neighbors to determine the better classifier for this data set. The initial results show that electrical load behavior is not necessarily reflective of calendar clustering even without using the min-max temperature recorded during the inclusive months. Simulating the day-type classification process using one cluster, initial results show that the k-nearest neighbors outperforms the Naïve Bayes classifier for this data set and that the best feature to be used for classification into day type is the daily min-max load. These classified load data is expected to reduce training time and improve the overall performance of short-term load demand predictive models in a future paper.

Scheffer, V., Ipach, H., Becker, C..  2019.  Distribution Grid State Assessment for Control Reserve Provision Using Boundary Load Flow. 2019 IEEE Milan PowerTech. :1—6.

With the increasing expansion of wind and solar power plants, these technologies will also have to contribute control reserve to guarantee frequency stability within the next couple of years. In order to maintain the security of supply at the same level in the future, it must be ensured that wind and solar power plants are able to feed in electricity into the distribution grid without bottlenecks when activated. The present work presents a grid state assessment, which takes into account the special features of the control reserve supply. The identification of a future grid state, which is necessary for an ex ante evaluation, poses the challenge of forecasting loads. The Boundary Load Flow method takes load uncertainties into account and is used to estimate a possible interval for all grid parameters. Grid congestions can thus be detected preventively and suppliers of control reserve can be approved or excluded. A validation in combination with an exemplary application shows the feasibility of the overall methodology.

Zhou, Xingyu, Li, Yi, Barreto, Carlos A., Li, Jiani, Volgyesi, Peter, Neema, Himanshu, Koutsoukos, Xenofon.  2019.  Evaluating Resilience of Grid Load Predictions under Stealthy Adversarial Attacks. 2019 Resilience Week (RWS). 1:206–212.
Recent advances in machine learning enable wider applications of prediction models in cyber-physical systems. Smart grids are increasingly using distributed sensor settings for distributed sensor fusion and information processing. Load forecasting systems use these sensors to predict future loads to incorporate into dynamic pricing of power and grid maintenance. However, these inference predictors are highly complex and thus vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Moreover, the adversarial attacks are synthetic norm-bounded modifications to a limited number of sensors that can greatly affect the accuracy of the overall predictor. It can be much cheaper and effective to incorporate elements of security and resilience at the earliest stages of design. In this paper, we demonstrate how to analyze the security and resilience of learning-based prediction models in power distribution networks by utilizing a domain-specific deep-learning and testing framework. This framework is developed using DeepForge and enables rapid design and analysis of attack scenarios against distributed smart meters in a power distribution network. It runs the attack simulations in the cloud backend. In addition to the predictor model, we have integrated an anomaly detector to detect adversarial attacks targeting the predictor. We formulate the stealthy adversarial attacks as an optimization problem to maximize prediction loss while minimizing the required perturbations. Under the worst-case setting, where the attacker has full knowledge of both the predictor and the detector, an iterative attack method has been developed to solve for the adversarial perturbation. We demonstrate the framework capabilities using a GridLAB-D based power distribution network model and show how stealthy adversarial attacks can affect smart grid prediction systems even with a partial control of network.