Infrastructure networks are the foundation of the modern world. Their continued reliable and efficient function without exhausting finite natural resources is critical to the security, continued growth and technological advancement of the United States. Currently these systems are in a state of rapid flux due to a collision of trends such as growing populations, expanding integration of information technology, and increasing motivation to adopt sustainable practices. These trends beget both exciting potential benefits and dangerous challenges. Added sensing, communication, and computational capabilities hold the promise of increased reliability, efficiency and sustainability from "smart" infrastructure systems. At the same time, new technologies such as renewable energy resources in power systems, autonomous vehicles, and software defined communication networks, are testing the limits of current operational and market policies. The rapidly changing suite of system components can cause new, unforeseen interactions that can lead to instability, performance deterioration, or catastrophic failures. Achieving the full benefits of these systems will require a shift from the existing focus on approaches that analyze each aspect of interest in isolation, to a more holistic view that encompasses all of the relevant factors such as stability, robustness, performance and efficiency, and takes into account the presence of human participants. This project provides a research roadmap to construct analysis, design and control tools that ensure the seamless integration of computational algorithms, physical components and human interactions in next generation infrastructure systems. Although there has been a great deal of research on stability questions in large scale distributed systems, there has been little effort directed toward questions of performance, robustness and efficiency in these systems, especially those with heterogeneous components and human participants. This research employs coupled oscillator systems as a common modeling framework to (i) characterize stability and performance of infrastructure systems, and (ii) develop distributed controllers that guarantee performance, efficiency and robustness by isolating disturbances and optimizing performance objectives. Practical solutions require that the theory be tightly integrated with the economic mechanisms necessary to incentivize users to enhance system stability, efficiency and reliability; therefore the work will also include the design of economic controls. In order to ground the mathematical foundations, theory and algorithms described above, the results will be applied to three target infrastructure networks where coupled oscillator models have played a foundational role in design and control: power, communication, and transportation systems. This approach allows the development of cross-cutting, fundamental principles that can be applied across problem specific boundaries and ensures that the research makes an impact on these specific infrastructure networks. This project will also incorporate concepts into existing undergraduate and graduate courses.

This proposal addresses a multidisciplinary workshop with academic researchers, corporate technology providers, and agricultural producers to define research challenges and a research road-map to address the following major FEWS challenges: 1. Developing novel targeted remote sensing and in-situ sensing technology that can be practically fielded and used in food and water system management. 2. Developing novel integrated hydrology, soil, microclimate, and plant/agricultural production models that interact accurately and across traditional scales for understanding local, regional, and national impacts. 3. Turning this developing and pending FEWS data deluge into usable, actionable information for agricultural producers, local and regional decision makers, and citizens. The workshop addresses the emerging issues in the food/water/energy system throughout the diverse geography of United States and over various crops and environmental conditions to better understand and model, and ultimate devise a solution for the changes to the FEWS system. The solution must be multifaceted, multidisciplinary in order to incorporate sensing, hydrology, visual analytics, and the potential for increased climate change. The workshop will generate a report and other artifacts that will lead to research into solving these challenges and have an impact on scientific fields including, sensing technology, hydrology, soil science, climate, data fusion, analysis, visualization, and data driven decision making, as well as agricultural production, local and regional economies, sustainability and planning.

Strategic decision-making for physical-world infrastructures is rapidly transitioning toward a pervasively cyber-enabled paradigm, in which human stakeholders and automation leverage the cyber-infrastructure at large (including on-line data sources, cloud computing, and handheld devices). This changing paradigm is leading to tight coupling of the cyber- infrastructure with multiple physical- world infrastructures, including air transportation and electric power systems. These management-coupled cyber- and physical- infrastructures (MCCPIs) are subject to complex threats from natural and sentient adversaries, which can enact complex propagative impacts across networked physical-, cyber-, and human elements. We propose here to develop a modeling framework and tool suite for threat assessment for MCCPIs. The proposed modeling framework for MCCPIs has three aspects: 1) a tractable moment-linear modeling paradigm for the hybrid, stochastic, and multi-layer dynamics of MCCPIs; 2) models for sentient and natural adversaries, that capture their measurement and actuation capabilities in the cyber- and physical- worlds, intelligence, and trust-level; and 3) formal definitions for information security and vulnerability. The attendant tool suite will provide situational awareness of the propagative impacts of threats. Specifically, three functionalities termed Target, Feature, and Defend will be developed, which exploit topological characteristics of an MCCPI to evaluate and mitigate threat impacts. We will then pursue analyses that tie special infrastructure-network features to security/vulnerability. As a central case study, the framework and tools will be used for threat assessment and risk analysis of strategic air traffic management. Three canonical types of threats will be addressed: environmental-to-physical threats, cyber-physical co-threats, and human-in-the-loop threats. This case study will include development and deployment of software decision aids for managing man-made disturbances to the air traffic system.